Saturday, June 19, 2010

It's "Search Wars" in the Solar World

Solyndra is in a risky financial position after trading its much anticipated IPO for mountain of debt, citing market conditions.  However, one has to ask whether market conditions were the only factor.

There is a battle of solar technologies reminiscent of the search engine wars during the dot-com era, that will sort itself out over the next few years.  Solar panels may rely on a variety of materials that include crystalline silicon, thin films and nano inks.  At some point the tradeoff between manufacturing costs and power generation capability per unit area will determine which technology prevails. 

The wildcard will be some of the emerging companies that build technologies to monitor and enhance the performance of solar panels, such as Enphase Energy and Solar Edge.  Their enabling technologies will help determine whether the best, most efficient solar panels are necessary to generate large volumes of electricity, or whether less efficient panels with lower materials and manufacturing costs can win.

Is Solyndra really ready to engage in this battle?   One has to wonder whether their cost structure will allow them to succeed and what role it played in their decision to pull their IPO.  Regardless, they are in for a tough go.

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